Sunday, May 07, 2006

GOOD JOB, OPPOSITION PARTIES

So, GE 2006 has come to a rather insipid end.

True to its original script, PAP won all but 2 of the 84 seats in Parliament. Everything is still in its original status quo: Mr Chiam See Tong of the Singapore Democratic Alliance is still hanging on strongly, with a mandate that far defies logic (he managed to garner 55.8% over his nemesis, PAP counterpart Sitoh Yih Pin, a marked improvement from his last, which he got 52.4%), stretching his hold of 22yrs by another 5.

Mr Low Thia Kiang from the Workers' Party also managed to hold on to his Hougang ward with a 62.74% majority, again a marked improvement from the previous GE of more than 2.7%.

And our dear Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong, didn't receive much of a "mandate" to crow about: just a mere 66% over what has been a bunch of a rag-tag, "suicide" team clobbered together by the Workers' Party.

All in all, PAP managed to gather 66% of the total votes polled, a drastic drop from the previous GE, which the PAP won with a stunning mandate of 75.29%. That's a sharp drop of 9% in votes.

All in all, I would say that it wasn't the results that would have been pleasing to most opposition supporters. For me, it was really heart-wrenching to see my GRC at Aljunied lose by a mere 7%. I would have expected the PAP to lose 2 GRCs, in addition to the two opposition bastions at Potong Pasir and Hougang.

Well, I guess its a tall order for Singaporeans to ditch the ruling incumbent en masse, given the conservative nature of the average Singaporean. The good side of it all, really, is the impressive performance of the opposition, which even the ruling incumbent had to grudgingly admit to the general public.


Special thanks and applause for WP Chairman, Low Thia Kiang, and his team of exceptional candidates, and Mr Chiam's dogged determination to hold on to his impregnable fortress at Potong Pasir.

Added by at82:

Some data of this GE by Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo).

The media calculations is based upon the total number of valid votes to caculate the winning margins, but then is that the complete picture. I have made my calculation and looking at my results, there is and average of about 6% absentees, with the largest number of absentees at Joo Chiat, which is double at 12%.

Then there are the spolit votes, which was also not taken into consideration into the calcualtion of winning percentage by the media. What I am calculating is not the percentage of votes for the opposition but the real percentage of votes against the government.

By not turning up for the polls and by spoiling the vote, the message by these people can be that they are not happy with either party and as such not voting in protest, which could then be a signal of protesting against the ruling party.

If these absentees and spolit votes can be won by the opposition, they could then have a better losing margin, with them merely losing Aljunied by 1.5%. So, could they have won Aljunied this time if they have worked even harder? Could they have persuaded the protest votes and a little more of the votes that went to the winning party, they may have been the winning party themselves.

From my calculations, LHL only won AMK by 60.42% against what the media calcualted at 66%.

Here are my results, source of the numbers are taken off the ST and CNA.

CNA Result of GRCs

AMK
Total number of eligible voters: 159872 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 146059 (91.36%)
Spolit Votes: 2979 (1.86%)
Missing: 108434 (6.78%)
Won: 96591 (60.42%)
Lost: 49468 (30.94%)

Aljunied
Total number of eligible voters: 145141 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 133395 (91.91%)
Spolit Votes: 2381 (1.64%)
Missing: 9365 (6.45%)
Won: 74810 (51.54)
Lost: 58585 (40.36)

EC GRC
Total number of eligible voters: 116653 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 104757 (89.80%)
Spolit Votes: 2223 (1.91%)
Missing: 9673 (8.29%)
Won: 66890 (57.34%)
Lost: 37867 (32.46%)

CNA Result of SMCs

Joo Chiat SMC
Total number of eligible voters: 21858 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 18799 (86.00%)
Spolit Votes: 390 (1.78%)
Missing: 2669 (12.21%)
Won: 12222 (55.92%)
Lost: 6577 (30.09%)

CCK SMC
Total number of eligible voters: 24975 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 23441 (93.86%)
Spolit Votes: 501 (2.01%)
Missing: 1033 (4.14%)
Won: 14151 (56.66%)
Lost: 9290 (37.20%)

10 Comments:

At 11:53 AM, May 07, 2006, Anonymous K.J. said...

It is a commendable performance by the Opposition. This is the first election since 1988 without the so-called by-election effect. Simply put, we could assume that a third of all Singaporeans, presuming that the outcomes are similar in the uncontested seats, have decided to vote the PAP out of power. So, there is something for the Opposition, especially the WP, to work with.

 
At 2:32 PM, May 07, 2006, Blogger at82 said...

Hi beast:

Would u consider helping WP, or any other parties for that matter, out in the future?

 
At 5:24 PM, May 07, 2006, Blogger BEAST said...

At82:

Now that is one tough calling.

I don't know how I can help, seriously. I do not have enough credentials to challenge as a candidate. And to date, no one from WP or any other party, for the matter, has ever approached me.

Shouls a party approach me for assistance, I would consider it. But again, I would have to gauge whether I am of use to the assigned task.

 
At 6:01 PM, May 07, 2006, Blogger at82 said...

Hi beast:

WP is not PAP. It has doesn't have the resources to cherry pick ppl.

Everyone who join probably did it out of his/her own will.

I can see that u can write well.

Perhaps u can help out with their newsletter.

How abt emailing them to find out?

It is better than griping abt the govt here rite?

 
At 6:25 PM, May 07, 2006, Blogger BEAST said...

Hmm.

I might consider it.

 
At 6:36 PM, May 07, 2006, Blogger at82 said...

hi beast:

Pls do, bcos I believe that it is worth it.

 
At 6:41 PM, May 07, 2006, Blogger BEAST said...

Well, I can try, but I am sure they have better writers in their ranks than myself.

 
At 1:09 AM, May 08, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like to say kudos and expressed my thanks and appreciation to the opposition parties for a well fought fight without having to resort to mudslinging and threats and sticking to the issues. "CLAP, CLAP" and SALUTES!!. They put up a good fight inspite of all the ridiculous constraints that will thrown at them. Appreciation, Thanks, Kudos & Salutes to the Courageous Residents of Potong Pasir and Hougang for returning Mr. Chiam and Mr. Low back to Parliament.

We all know what the end result was going to be anyway, with the pap back in power as usual. But we did get a taste of these 14 days of "freedom" and Hope that perhaps might mark the beginning of political awareness for the young generation that will go to the polls in the next election. I can only Hope.

 
At 3:01 AM, May 27, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

U claim to be neutral nt pro WP but ur postings proved otherwise. Only u know where u stand and thts crystal clear.

 
At 3:08 AM, May 27, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Biased calculations. Of cos u hope all those absent and spoilt go WP way. Wonder what makes u so sure? 100% go WP? The most 35%. In any GE, bound to hv absentees. And u think being absent v shiok? Y nt u try being absent c whether ED will reinstate u. Spoilt votes being anti PAP? Simplistic. If yes all the spoilt votes would hv gone WP way. But they r nt giving WP a chance either. Y? U wana know? Ask them.

 

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